1.3 Gloom vs. Bloom of the Future of Work

In the ever-evolving digital era, discussions often revolve around the potential for unforeseen, detrimental scenarios, particularly concerning the world of work. This comprehensive analysis seeks to shift the focus toward optimism, highlighting opportunities rather than dwelling on the potential challenges that modern and future societies may encounter in terms of work and life.

This course recognizes that work has transitioned from its traditional role as a means of life sustenance to becoming predominantly transactional and profit-driven, often leading to a loss of its inherent meaningfulness. The discourse surrounding the future of work is vast, with many perspectives painting gloomy pictures. It's tempting to get caught up in this negativity and emphasize the catastrophic aspects. Some common forecasts include:

• The possibility, based on research by economists Carl Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University, that up to 40 percent of all jobs may become automated by computers within the next two decades.1

• Speculations that not only will 75 percent of jobs be at risk due to automation, but there could also be a shift of companies from developing to developed nations as labor becomes less critical.2

• Futurist Thomas Frey's assertion that an astonishing two billion jobs could disappear over the next 15 years.3

• The added complexity of one or two billion individuals entering the job market seeking employment, which coincides with a period of significant global market expansion and heightened competition.

• A glimmer of optimism suggesting that 60 percent of the jobs that will exist a decade from now have not yet been conceptualized.4

• Gallup reports that a staggering 87 percent of employees worldwide are disengaged at work.5

These forecasts raise questions about the future availability of jobs and, more importantly, the nature and significance of these jobs. Several key points that merit consideration include the following:

• Work has shifted from being primarily a life-sustaining endeavor to becoming predominantly transactional, leading to a loss of meaning for many individuals.6

• Present conditions include both high unemployment levels and substantial wealth creation, contributing to widening wealth disparities.

• Developing countries are witnessing the rapid growth of their middle class, while highly developed nations are experiencing a decline in theirs.

In the subsequent chapters, we aim to explore how the same transformative forces can be creatively and imaginatively leveraged to uncover opportunities and envision a more positive future for work. We acknowledge that by focusing on positivity, this message may lack the sensationalism often found in discussions of challenges and obstacles. Nevertheless, we embrace this challenge to steer away from despair and concentrate on the potential for growth. The term bloom resonates with us, as it signifies a state of greatest beauty, freshness, and vigor, in contrast to the gloom associated with depression or despondency.

We then delve into an exploration of the principal drivers of transformation shaping the future of work in the Cyber Age. We argue that we currently inhabit a world shaped by three potent converging megatrends:

• Globalization

• Digitalization

• Creation

These megatrends will compel companies to rethink their leadership, management, and operational strategies, including their supply chains. Embracing these changes, we contend, will lead to significant success, while clinging to current practices will result in revenue loss and increased costs.

Five global forces further influence this landscape: (1) social changes, (2) technological advancements, (3) global connectivity, (4) environmental shifts, and (5) asymmetric conflicts. Additionally, we mention several key global issues, such as shifting demographics, a transition from spiritual to materialistic values, rapid environmental degradation, the swift progress of artificial intelligence, and the transformation of traditional jobs.

In the context of the digital supply chain, we must recognize that while many activities will be automated, they will not be entirely replaced by machines. The Cyber Age presents humanity with significant challenges and opportunities, demanding transformations in both business and society to harness the potential of digital technologies. We find ourselves at a unique historical juncture where we can reinvent human society and lifestyles by harnessing the achievements of the Cyber Age. The powerful driver of creation offers us a means to positively impact education, culture, business, and society at large. It invites us to reintroduce meaning into politics, the economy, and, crucially, the world of work.

Particularly in light of the three converging megatrends mentioned earlier, we can anticipate the continual emergence of new data sources, innovative analytics, and evolving software, robotics, and customer demands. In this course, we emphasize that many companies today fail to fully capitalize on the opportunities presented by data, systems, and human potential. It underscores that organizational change largely hinges on people's willingness and capacity to embrace the future. This holds true for the journey toward a digital supply chain, which necessitates education, communication, organizational redesign, process restructuring, and the infusion of fresh talent. In this context, the cultural shift must take precedence, emphasizing that changes in how people work and collaboration across diverse groups will be paramount.

The course then takes a somber turn, highlighting the prevalence of destructive forces in the world today. It paints a distressing picture of these forces, namely greed, fear, and hatred, and their far-reaching consequences. Greed manifests in various forms, including a lust for power, wealth, or dominance, often culminating in corruption and the abuse of power. Fear, on the other hand, stems from the apprehension of losing acquired wealth and status, sometimes resulting in notions of racial superiority or dictatorial regimes. Lastly, hatred, driven by a failure to embrace differences, often takes the form of terrorism and fanaticism.

We then navigate through the phases of the Cyber Age and outline the dominance of digitalization in the current phase and the emerging phase characterized by virtualization. It underscores that all aspects of life are undergoing transformation, with a particular urgency surrounding the rapid digitalization of work. This progression, the text suggests, will be followed by the virtualization of work, leading to a competition between human competencies and intelligent machines. The authors acknowledge the profound impact these changes will have on the quality of life.

The Cyber Age, we contend, represents a period of both creation and destruction. Unleashed creativity serves as the driving force behind change and transformation, with destruction representing its darker counterpart. The authors acknowledge that destruction can sometimes be a necessary precondition or consequence of creation.

We reference Alvin Toffler's discussions from the 1970s and 80s, highlighting his exploration of the "death of permanence."7 The authors assert that today, the intensification of this notion is palpable—nothing remains unchanged. Every facet of human activity, belief, and paradigm is undergoing revision, questioning, reframing, and reinvention. They emphasize the accelerating pace of change, noting that the half-life of knowledge—the time it takes for 50 percent of what we know to become obsolete—is decreasing. They cite an example of a colleague who teaches electrical engineering to PhD students, who finds that he needs to update half of his notes every 12 months, demonstrating an astonishingly short half-life of knowledge. The text paints a vivid picture of humanity being thrust into the heart of a hurricane of change.

In the present era, the prevailing spirit is characterized by a dynamic interplay between creation and destruction, accompanied by an enduring sense of anxiety. Change is the only constant, and the global expansion of digitalization is propelling the world into a profound transformation. This transformation begets uncertainty and apprehension about the future. Simultaneously, various factors operate and contribute to this uncertainty like political shifts exemplified by the BREXIT referendum, or the election of Donald Trump as the US president, alongside environmental calamities such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and flooding. The world also grapples with escalating migration (notably from the Middle East and Africa to Europe), water scarcity, armed conflicts, terrorism, and the prevailing pessimism regarding the future of work and unemployment.

Amid this backdrop, many individuals find themselves ensnared in the web of negative speculations concerning the future of work. It's no surprise that anxiety tends to garner attention—it sells. Most forecasts concerning the future of work tend to focus on the potentially destructive aspects of workplace transformation. In a scenario where machines and artificial intelligence (AI) entities assume the majority of tasks, profound social challenges could indeed arise. Additionally, with the assumption that most people will gravitate toward large cities, the prospect of unrest and tensions becomes conceivable. This leads to a fundamental question: Are we on the brink of entering another dark age characterized by anxiety and fear? While the conventional answer might be affirmative, the ensuing discussion aims to approach the various challenges from a more positive and inspiring angle. The guiding motto for this message can be encapsulated as follows: "The future is a finite opportunity; if we squander it, there's no second chance!"

The Cyber Age presents humanity with monumental challenges and opportunities. It necessitates a transformation of both business and society, enabling them to harness the potential of digital technologies. We find ourselves at an extraordinary historical juncture, offering the chance to reinvent human society and lifestyles by capitalizing on the achievements of the Cyber Age. The potent driver of creation can be harnessed to yield constructive impacts on education, culture, business, and, ultimately, society. It beckons us to reintroduce meaning into the realms of politics and the economy, culminating in a revival of purpose in our work and lives.

The unfolding Fourth Industrial Revolution harbors the potential to revolutionize the speed and scope of creation. The convergence of innovative technological solutions will reshape our lives and work in ways far beyond our current expectations. This revolution will also wield influence over politics and the roles of governments. The introduction of virtual reality adds an unprecedented dimension to this transformation. Its precise impact remains challenging to envision today, but it promises to be profound, surpassing anything we currently experience.

Focusing on "jobs" as a starting point is perhaps misguided. Work comprises a multitude of diverse tasks and activities, and over the next five to ten years, an increasing number of these activities—traditionally categorized as "work"—will be executed by intelligent machines. However, this does not necessarily entail the outright disappearance of jobs. To be sure, various jobs will be impacted in different forms and to varying degrees. In reality, only a limited number of jobs will completely vanish, giving way to the emergence of hybrid work models.

A significant shift is envisioned where people and machines collaborate as teams. To appreciate the benefits of this human-machine interface, consider the historical evolution of transportation. Walking was succeeded by horse-drawn carriages, which were in turn supplanted by cars and, subsequently, airplanes. At each stage, these innovations expanded an individual's capacity to explore and navigate the world. In a similar vein, contemporary AI technologies are poised to enable fresh perspectives on the human-machine interface, enhancing not only productivity but also our understanding of the world, potentially transcending our current imaginations.