1.7 Charting a Roadmap for the Positive Future of Work

The likelihood of many jobs being entirely replaced by intelligent machines, robots, or similar technologies in the next five to 10 years is quite low. However, it is highly probable that numerous tasks and activities currently categorized as "work" will become automated across various job roles.

The future of work is likely to consist of hybrid working models, where humans collaborate with intelligent machines and robots. When viewed from a macro perspective, the ongoing trend involves the gradual replacement of human labor by machines, and more recently, these machines have become increasingly autonomous. This trend is expected to continue, possibly at an accelerated pace. By the mid-twenty-first century, it is conceivable that human labor, as we understand it today, may account for less than 25 percent of the total workforce. This trend is represented by the purple line in Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1: Transformation of Work and Business

It's important to note that even during this period of transformation, new types of work activities will continually emerge. However, these new activities are unlikely to reverse the overall trend. Instead, they will demand fresh professional competencies and skills, reflecting the evolving nature of work in the digital age.

The process of digitalization is indeed expected to lead to a decline in activities that are currently performed by people. While this trend can offer the benefit of freeing up time for other activities, it is contingent on solving the economic equation of how people will sustain themselves in a world where traditional forms of work become scarcer.

The question then becomes: where lies the potential for future human activities to be considered as work? These activities can play a crucial role in bridging the transition toward a virtualized world. Until virtualization reaches its full potential and becomes operational, human value will largely be created through virtual activities. It's essential to recognize that this future world will have distinct needs and demands compared to the present.

The transformation toward this virtualized future has already begun, but its full impact may not be realized until the middle of the twenty-first century. While this might seem like a far-fetched idea to some, it's not as distant as it may appear; it's only about a generation away. This concept is illustrated by the orange line in Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1 suggests that this transformation will occur gradually, punctuated by disruptive and potentially destructive periods. It's anticipated that we will soon witness the emergence of multi-hybrid models of business and work, involving a combination of human labor, intelligent machines, and virtual activities performed by humans with the support of virtual entities. As such, there is no escaping these impending realities, and we must actively prepare for them. The next few decades will lead the world out of its historical comfort zone into a future that remains largely unknown. This transition may result in economic, political, and social upheavals, along with increased anxiety among many people. Consequently, there is an urgent need to develop "interim solutions." Addressing this challenge calls for a multidisciplinary and systemic approach, characterized by a forward-looking perspective and the courage to face an uncertain future. The younger generation is poised to play a pivotal role in this process, given their proximity to the future world. Older generations can contribute by sharing their experiences and values to guide the younger generation in the right direction.

The Concept of the Metaverse

The concept of the metaverse encompasses four distinct worlds, each with its own unique characteristics and significance:

  1. The Multiverse: This is our universe, the physical reality that we inhabit.

  2. The Virtual World: This is the digital representation of our universe, rapidly expanding through digital technologies and virtual environments.

  3. The Fantasy World: This world is based on the fiction and imagination that humanity has created, encompassing various forms of storytelling and fictional realms. It may also include the "dream world."

  4. The Spiritual World: This world is deeply ingrained within all religions and is also a significant aspect of individual consciousness. It deals with matters of the spirit, faith, and belief.

The virtual world is currently in its infancy but holds enormous potential for growth and development. One example of this potential lies in the world of arts. The digitization of artwork, combined with virtual art and the ability of computer programs to generate art autonomously, opens up exciting possibilities for artistic expression within the metaverse. This is not science fiction; the art world is already making significant strides toward integration with the virtual world.

Figure 1.2: The Components of the Metaverse

In the context of the virtual world, there is the prospect of reaching "Singularity II." This hypothetical scenario envisions a moment when the programs within the virtual world gain independence and, potentially, a form of "virtual consciousness." As microprocessors become integrated into everyday objects and networked, the infrastructure for ubiquitous digital communication and virtual reality will extend the boundaries of the virtual world. This is where the concept of the Internet of Things (IoT) comes into play.

The key emphasis here is the importance of values in shaping the development of virtual reality. Constructing the virtual world based on universal human values is essential to avoid a replication of the negative aspects of the "old way" of thinking and behaving. Failing to infuse virtual reality with values could lead to a struggle for dominance between our physical world and the virtual world, mirroring the power struggles and conflicts we witness today.

It's worth noting that the only constraints on virtual reality are related to server capacity, power supply, programming capabilities, and transmission capacity. These limitations are likely to be addressed and resolved by virtual entities as they progress toward "Singularity II," potentially leading to unforeseen advancements in virtual reality.

Toward a Configuration of Competency Clusters

Competency clusters and converging competency clusters are fascinating explorations of how digitalization and virtualization will reshape the organization and structure of industries and innovation. These clusters represent a new form of organization that integrates various entities and resources around a core competency or specialized competencies. Here's a breakdown of this concept:

  1. Competency Clusters: These are organizational structures that revolve around a specific core competency. These clusters bring together a wide range of entities, including R&D centers, educational institutions, innovation hubs, start-up incubators, virtual labs, related companies, suppliers, professionals, experts, and more. Each cluster is centered around a particular competency such as health, beverages, education, energy, construction, finance, and others. This approach allows for a highly focused and collaborative ecosystem where various stakeholders work together to advance and innovate within that specific competency.

  2. Converging Competency Clusters: In some cases, competencies may converge or overlap. This can lead to the emergence of Converging Competency Clusters where two or more competency clusters come together to explore new opportunities and innovations at the intersection of their respective domains. For instance, the convergence of Biotech, Infotech, Nanotech, and Genetics (BING) represents a powerful cluster that could lead to groundbreaking discoveries and advancements. Similar acronyms like NBIC (Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology, and Cognitive Science), GNR (Genetics, Nanotechnology, and Robotics), GRAIN (Genetics, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, and Nanotechnology), and BANG (Bits, Atoms, Neurons, Genes) highlight the growing recognition of the significance of these convergences.

These competency clusters and their convergence reflect the increasing complexity and interplay of technologies and knowledge domains in our rapidly evolving Digital and Virtual Ages. They have the potential to drive innovation, research, and development across various industries and domains by fostering collaboration and cross-pollination of ideas and expertise. As we move forward, these clusters may play a pivotal role in shaping the future of technology, industry, and society.

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