16.2 Introduction
“How old is your phone?”
That is a simple question, but it reflects the breathtaking pace of technology change in recent years. Consider this: as recently as 2003, 95% of U.S. households used landlines. As of 2020, more than 4 in 5 Americans between 25 and 34 have gone entirely wireless. Of course, back in 2003, any question about a person’s phone would have needed clarification: “Do you mean my home or mobile phone?” Now, we automatically think of a smartphone that is packed with as much memory and storage as a personal computer, fits in your hand, and can take photos at a level of quality that has pushed Canon into discontinuing its digital SLR camera business altogether!
Similar technological revolution in other industries continues apace with significant impact on how Lean Six Sigma is implemented throughout organizations. Consider the Gartner Hype Cycle; every disruptive technology follows a similar cycle of five different stages:
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Technology trigger: a new emerging technology with demonstrated proof-of-concept application is introduced to the market.
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Peak of inflated expectations: mounting business-use cases have leaders, technologists, and futurists speculating how the technology serves as a panacea for all business problems of all sizes.
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Trough of disillusionment: as application attempts falter and implementation projects of the new technology yield below-expectations results, disappointment overtakes enthusiasm.
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Slope of enlightenment: persistent advocates of the technology continue to explore best-use applications of the technology, ultimately identifying viable ways for the technology to add value to existing business processes.
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Plateau of productivity: adoption of the technology moves beyond niche focuses toward mainstream use.
You can likely think up a list of new technologies that are currently in different stages of the hype cycle. Consider radio frequency identification (RFID). It was hailed in the early 2000s as the next-generation universal product code (UPC). RFID tags’ ability to store information—something that UPC cannot—was believed to be key to unlocking vast supply chain transparency and traceability, inventory savings, increased sales, lowered theft, and increased personalized product recommendations in-store to shoppers. Yet, the impact of these uses for RFID remains more of a whimper rather than the wallop as hyped by the business press and beyond. Even worse, some early adopters of RFID largely gave up on this technology as results failed to match lofty expectations.
Today, the hype surrounding RFID no longer exists. Yet, it has been applied to tracking entire pallets rather than individual units of products, and to flagship retail locations rather than all locations.
In other words, emerging technologies that seem promising must be appropriately applied to minimize losses that inevitably come from blind implementation.
Based on the Gartner Hype Cycle and the RFID example above, think about technology wars that have been waged over time: Betamax versus VHS; HD-DVD versus Blu-ray; 4G WiMax versus 4G LTE; plasma versus LCD/LED television. If you were a company, how could you have known back then which technology to back? Prizes can be bountiful: if you backed the winning technology, not only would you have a controlling stake in the market but you would also help to shape the next generation!
Now, there are instances where dueling technologies ultimately coexist in parallel in the same market: DSL and cable broadband; CDMA and GSM telecommunications; Windows and macOS. What’s different about them?
Turns out, every market has enough room for roughly two technologies that serve the same customers, but here’s the key: they must differentiate along the lines of either cost or performance—and enough customers must care about either to sustain a market.
Consider some examples: DSL internet uses existing household phone lines, while cable internet uses cable TV lines; CDMA offers superior voice quality for calls, but GSM offers flexibility in switching devices; Windows offers an open platform and a wide range of hardware choices, while macOS offers a controlled operating environment with software custom-tailored for the hardware. In contrast, Betamax offered a quality advantage over VHS, but ultimately consumers did not care enough about quality advantages to sustain both platforms.
In summary, technological changes and how they impact Lean Six Sigma will follow the same archetypes: new technologies can be used to differentiate based on cost or performance. Lean Six Sigma programs can help companies sharpen their focus to achieve long-term success.